Volatility surface
Black-Scholes assumes one volatility. Markets do not agree: the volatility implied by option prices changes with strike, the smile, and with maturity, the term structure. Choose a shape for the "market", generate its quotes, edit any of them, and solve the whole grid back into implied volatilities.
Market shape
Market
Strikes run from 70% to 130% of the spot. Maturities are 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 1 and 2 years. Each quote is the out-of-the-money option at that strike, a put below the forward and a call above it, which is how markets quote.
Quotes
Equity skew| T \ K | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 | 110 | 120 | 130 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1y | put | put | put | put | call | call | call |
| 0.25y | put | put | put | put | call | call | call |
| 0.5y | put | put | put | put | call | call | call |
| 1y | put | put | put | put | call | call | call |
| 2y | put | put | put | put | put | call | call |
How to read it
If Black-Scholes described the market, every cell would show the same number. A smile or skew is the market's way of saying that big moves are more likely than the lognormal model allows, and a skew says which direction it fears more. Traders use the surface as a lookup table: to price an option at any strike and maturity, read off its implied volatility and put that into Black-Scholes.
The short-dated smile is steeper because a given price move is a bigger shock over a week than over two years. Models such as Heston or local volatility exist to reproduce these shapes with one consistent set of parameters.